Steel market price forecast on March 16

Rebar: On March 16, the average price of 20mm grade 3 rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 4,732 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From the perspective of transactions, speculative demand in the market weakened on the 16th, downstream on-demand purchases, and overall transactions slowed down compared with the previous trading day. In terms of steel mills, the profit of construction steel production has expanded recently, and steel mills are more enthusiastic about production. Construction steel production may continue to rebound slightly this week. In terms of inventory, the total amount of construction steel inventory has turned from an increase to a decrease last week, with an inflection point. It is expected that the market may enter the peak season and continue to destock. On the whole, the current construction steel market presents a pattern of booming supply and demand, which supports spot prices to a certain extent. At the same time, the market mentality is becoming more cautious as high-priced resource transactions are blocked.

Hot-rolled coils: On March 16, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4972 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Futures in early trading on the 16th oscillated, and the spot market was full of wait-and-see sentiment. Merchants mainly maintained stable quotations and prices in some cities rose slightly. Intraday futures fluctuated and declined, the spot market mentality weakened, and some market prices fell slightly, but the overall market transactions were poor, and some market prices fell again in the afternoon. As the current market prices are still high, downstream users are more cautious in purchasing, high-priced resources are difficult to trade, coupled with the downward trend of futures, the market mentality is more pessimistic, and prices still have downward risks. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil on the 17th may fluctuate and run weakly.

Cold rolled coil: On March 16, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 5678 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a fundamental point of view, prices are at a relatively historical high, market transactions have changed with the rise and fall of electronic futures, and traders have reported deviations in downstream demand performance. In the afternoon of the 16th, most of the spot quotations in East China were lowered by 20-30 yuan/ton, and the market mentality was pessimistic. On the whole, the domestic cold rolled prices fluctuated weakly on the 17th.

Plate: On March 16, the average price of 20mm common plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4,982 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Billets rose on the 16th, and most cities did not blindly chase the rise. They operated cautiously and focused on shipments. Shougang issued a price policy in April. The base price of plate is raised by 400 yuan/ton, and the current execution price of 20mm*2500Q235B plate is 5190 yuan/ton. Steel mills are still optimistic about the market outlook, which provides strong support to spot prices. From the supply side, the current steel mills are actively producing, and the environmental protection in the north has limited production and fermentation. Some steel companies have been affected, but the impact on the production of medium and heavy plates is limited. In terms of demand, downstream demand is acceptable and is gradually recovering, but due to the current high prices, purchasing enthusiasm is not good. On the whole, the price of plate is expected to remain stable on the 17th and wait-and-see.